The Texas Education Agency predicts public school enrollment peaked at 5.5 million students and will now decline.
AUSTIN, Texas — Enrollment in Texas schools is declining and will continue to decline for at least the next decade, despite the massive influx of new residents to the state, Commissioner Mike Morath told Senate budget writers at a hearing on Monday morning.
The Texas Education Agency predicts public school enrollment peaked at 5.5 million students and will now decline COVID-19 adjusted that trajectory, but that trajectory began changing after the Great Recession of 2011, Morath said. The trend crossed all racial and ethnic groups. In Texas and across the country, people started having fewer babies, Morath said. For the first time in recent memory, the number of students leaving Texas schools exceeded the number entering in the 2020-21 school year.
Texas has fewer children in middle school this year because it had fewer children entering pre-kindergarten and kindergarten after the 2011-12 school year, according to TEA numbers. Sen. Paul Bettencourt, R-Houston, pointed out that the overall expenditures on public education may continue to increase, even as the number of students declines. Texas, under House Bill 3 in 2019, poured additional funds into the school finance formula to reduce the property tax burden for homeowners and support specific interventions such as dyslexia and bilingual education.
“If I remember correctly, I think that was a $600 to $650 million budget item if we implement everything in that commission report, off the top of my head,” Bettencourt said.Lawmakers will have other demands for additional education funding besides teacher pay raises. Public education advocates are lobbying hard this session to switch from funding based on actual enrollment rather than average daily attendance.
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