Lack of access to clean water kills an estimated 200,000 Indians a year, and sickens millions more
is creaking, its health-care system even more so. Poverty and inequality remain omnipresent, and now the economy is struggling. Narendra Modi’s to-do list is long. But there are three issues that, if dealt with, could bring about big improvements. The environment is one. Twelve of the world’s 15 most polluted cities are in India , and the country ranks 120th of 122 on the global index of water quality. A second is education.
India promised, for instance, that solar power will make up an impressive-sounding 36% of its generation capacity by 2030. Yet the government itself predicts that it will still account for just 23% of actual generation as opposed to capacity. Coal’s share is expected to fall from 74% to 50% of the mix, but since the total amount of power generated will grow, that still means adding more coal-burning power plants. These suck up precious fresh water and spew out greenhouse gases.
Only when it does is there likely to be the sort of decisive shift towards cities that China has recently undergone. Two-thirds of Indians still live in rural areas, compared with 41% of Chinese. One of the main reasons for lower urbanisation is that subsidies to farmers make small rural holdings sustainable. More than drought or flood or government neglect, the resulting lack of profitability is the real root of India’s rural distress.
It is easy to ascribe such poor outcomes to low government spending on education. For decades, this has lingered below 4% of India’s, far below the world average. A disproportionate share of that, too, has gone to higher education, to ensure that India has a trained elite to run the country. As a result, many of India’s top state universities are indeed globally competitive. The downside is that its ordinary state schools are not.
To the relief of education experts who have long pleaded for reform, Mr Modi’s government is considering a draft national educational policy that admits to a crisis. Its chief recommendation is for a massive focus on literacy and numeracy at the foundation stage, so that children stop falling behind. That would be a good start.
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