At the start of the week, the EUR/USD soared towards the 1.0755 area, seeing more than 0.50% gains and then settled near 1.0745. On the one hand, the
ECB’s tightening expectations remain steady ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.At the start of the week, the EUR/USD soared towards the 1.0755 area, seeing more than 0.50% gains and then settled near 1.0745. On the one hand, the USD is retreating and trades with losses against most of its rivals while investors are gearing up for Wednesday's figures from August. On the Euro’s side, investors await Thursday’s European Central Bank decisions, where markets discount low odds of a hike.
Recent data from the US showed a mixed labour market outlook with accelerating job creation but wage inflation declining. In contrast, economic activity has shown weakness in the manufacturing sector but a strength in the services area. In addition, despite investors already warranting a pause in next week's Federal Reserve meeting, inflation figures from August will be crucial for investors to continue modelling their expectations. The headline CPI is expected to have increased by 0.
On the other hand, the Euro is trading soft against most of its rivals ahead of Thursday’s ECB decisions. According to a Bloomberg report, a slight majority of 55 analysts polled are seeing a pause, with 25 seeing a 25 basis point hike. Looking ahead, the chances of a 25 bps increase stand at 60% in the October meeting, followed by a 70% likelihood of a similar increase in December.
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