Libya's worst fighting for two years suddenly hit the capital, Tripoli, on Saturday. This explains what led to the violence, why it matters, and how things may play out.
Libya's fault lines surfaced as local groups took different positions in the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.
The squabbling armed factions that controlled western Libya came together to back the Tripoli government against Haftar and they repelled his assault in 2020 with help from Turkey, leading to a ceasefire and a new U.N.-backed peace process.The peace process brought in a new Government of National Unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah with a mandate to oversee national elections scheduled for December 2021, but there was no agreement on rules for the vote and the process collapsed.
Bashagha tried to enter Tripoli soon after he was appointed in March, but pro-Dbeibah factions blocked his convoy. He tried again in May, but left Tripoli after a brief shootout. However, with Bashagha seeming unable to build a coalition of western factions that can install him in Tripoli, they may have to think again.
Meanwhile, diplomacy has stalled and agreement on how to hold elections as a lasting solution to Libya's political disputes looks further away than ever. Groups have repeatedly shut down output before as a tactic to put pressure on the government in Tripoli where all foreign oil sales revenue is channelled into the central bank through international agreements.
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