Anyone paying the slightest attention to the Democratic presidential campaign ha...
NEW YORK - Anyone paying the slightest attention to the Democratic presidential campaign has likely seen headlines on the latest “horse race” opinion polls, highlighting one candidate’s rise or another’s decline.
Here’s a guide to reading, and understanding, polls at this stage of the outsized, 23-candidate Democratic contest:Professional pollsters rely on answers from a sample of people - anywhere from a few hundred respondents to 1,000 or more - intended to represent a much larger population. The man who would win the Republican Party’s nod, John McCain, hovered around 12%, with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the pack with support from nearly one-third of respondents.
The size of the Democratic field this cycle may also contribute to the uncertainty by giving people so many options. Analysts expect turnout in 2020 to hit levels not seen in decades, given the high level of political engagement in the era of Trump. That introduces more uncertainty for pollsters, who must make assumptions about voters who have not historically cast ballots but who are likely to do so next year.
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