Fed to cut rates for first time in a decade this month: Reuters poll

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Fed to cut rates for first time in a decade this month: Reuters poll
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A quarter-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July is almost a done deal,...

- A quarter-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July is almost a done deal, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who expect another later in the year amid rising economic risks from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

Over 95% of 111 economists now predict a 25 basis point cut at the July 30-31 meeting. Only two economists polled expected a 50 basis point reduction and a further two said the Fed would hold steady. Fed rate expectations have taken a U-turn this year, going to a holding pattern earlier in the year from a steady tightening path expected beforehand to a series of cuts. Indeed, just a month ago, the U.S. central bank was still forecast to keep policy on hold for now and ease next year.

The U.S. economy likely lost momentum last quarter and is now forecast to have expanded at an annualized pace of 1.8% in the April-June period, down from 3.1% reported for the first quarter, according to the poll. Growth is expected to hover around that rate in each quarter through to end-2020. Beyond this year, the U.S. central bank is forecast to keep policy on hold until 2021, the poll showed.

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