For Star subscribers: A switch to a more pessimistic forecasting model by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation could possibly trigger larger cutbacks in water deliveries, among other potential ramifications.
Tony Davis The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is considering altering its monthly Colorado River forecasting methods in the face of criticism from experts inside and outside the agency that predictions have been too optimistic.
People are also reading… Such a change would almost certainly make the forecasts more pessimistic than now. That's because the years since 2000 have not only been extremely dry, some scientists have found them to be the driest in the Southwest for the past 1,200 years. Average annual river flows have dropped from about 15 million acre-feet over the 20th century to barely 12 million since 2000.
A change to a 20-year forecasting model could have major implications for how the bureau plans its annual releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead and how it determines the levels of future shortages in river water deliveries from Mead to Lower Basin states, said another outside critic, Eric Kuhn. He's an author and researcher and retired general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District in Glenwood Springs, Colorado.
The biggest change that will occur if the method changes will be in the bureau's prediction of the lowest likely river flows — officially called"minimum probable" flows — expected over an upcoming year or longer, Udall said. "As you look at this, I would not walk away thinking this is exactly where we are going to end up," Prairie said at the conference, referring to the bureau's forecast for the most likely amount of flows into Powell in 2023."I would likely lean toward these lower flows, and consider that as you’re thinking about how to protect the system more."
A 'wet bias'The bureau declined to comment on Prairie's remarks. But in an email to the Star, a Reclamation official said the 30-year period traditionally used for forecasting could be trimmed to 20 years sometime before authorities approve new, broader guidelines for operating the river's reservoirs after existing guidelines expire in 2026.
"Spread represents the range of forecast — if it’s too tight, you could miss the observation ," said the official, in explaining tradeoffs from switching forecasting methods."If it’s too wide, then you don’t capture the specific forecast. Trying to balance the trend between accuracy and spread" is the need.
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Warriors star Steph Curry named NBA All-Star Game starterThis is the ninth time in his 14-year career he’s been named a starter for the All-Star Game.
Leer más »
Star Trek: Picard Star Jonathan Frakes: TV Key to Franchise's FutureStarTrekPicard star JonathanFrakes says maybe the Paramount franchise's future isn't in film right now but rather with television. / StarTrek StarTrekTNG ParamountPlus Riker STTNG Picard
Leer más »
This Epic Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Game Bundle is Only $3.99Indulge your inner 'Star Wars' nerd with this Steam-powered Star Wars game bundle.
Leer más »
SE BUREAU/LEGISLATIVE MMJ - KTUU (Juneau, AK) in Anchorage, AK**About Gray Television:** Gray Television is a leading media company that owns and operates high-quality stations in 113 television markets that collectively reach 36 percent of US television households. We constantly strive for excellence. Through upgrading to the latest technology and seekin...
Leer más »
‘Chicago Fire' Star Taylor Kinney Taking Break From Hit Show: ReportsOne of the stars of the hit NBC series “Chicago Fire,” Taylor Kinney, will reportedly be taking a break from the show.
Leer más »
Alden Ehrenreich Reflects on Solo, Would Return to Star WarsActor Alden Ehrenreich starred as a young Han Solo in the Star Wars prequel Solo: A Star Wars Story, and wouldn't mind returning to the role.
Leer más »