Need to Know: Yield-curve inversion called no match for American consumer
That’s our call of the day’s message, from The Economic Outlook Group’s chief global economist Bernard Baumohl, who says rising expectations of a global downturn are becoming a little nutty.
“All eyes should therefore be laser focused on what households are thinking and doing in the coming months--- and not on some tampered yield curve.”Baumohl says that while yield-curve inversions have accurately pointed to several past recessions, this time it’s different. Massive sovereign debt purchases by central banks since 2008 have “hugely distorted the government debt market, effectively tilting the scale so that U.S. treasury yields were skewed down.
But again, count on the US consumer to help: “Low unemployment, rising real wages, moderate energy prices, the surge in mortgage refinancings and the 7.3 million job openings firms are still desperate to fill --- all suggest that consumers will continue to spend enough to contribute to GDP growth even as businesses retrench,” he said.
More yield noise. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, -1.29% dropped under the 2% level for the first time early Thursday.Europe stocks SXXP, -0.32% are falling, and it’s been a mixed day for Asia ADOW, -0.56% Cisco CSCO, -4.00% shares are taking a hit after the tech group posted weak sales and a sluggish outlook, though 5G may turn into a lifeline.
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