4 ways to tell when a tax proposal is serious:
Divide this one into bills that have some chance of being passed and campaign ideas. When it comes to legislative proposals, lawmakers live in a hierarchy. Don’t expect a new idea from a freshman House Republican to get much traction this year, no matter how meritorious it is. The plan may one day get life, but not soon.
Just as Congress has a hierarchy, the Democratic presidential hopefuls will sort themselves over the next year. Most will never get out of the single digits in public opinion polls and never raise the money they need to run competitive races. But by January, a handful will make it to the top tier. That’s when you’ll want to pay close attention to their ideas.
That is not to say that those leading candidates won’t lift a proposal or two from an also-ran. But until they do, the grand plans of second-rate candidates will be forgotten as quickly as their sponsors. The bottom line: Take all tax plans with a grain of salt, but take some of them more seriously than others.
I am a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center as well as an analyst on aging and retirement policy. I'm the author of the book"Caring for Our Parents." I am author of the book"Caring for Our Parents" and resident fellow at The Urban Institute, where I am affiliated with the Tax Policy Center and the Program on Retireme...
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