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Investors are returning to the London nickel market with hefty bets that prices will fall, in a trend could set the stage for a fresh bout of volatility after steep declines this year.
After more than a year of illiquid trading, the LME has celebrated the recent upturn in activity, with chief executive Matthew Chamberlain earlier this month expressing cautious optimism that the market is stabilizing. But the growing mismatch between bulls and bears also risks stoking volatility again, and if positioning becomes more extreme it could serve as an acid test for trading controls the LME introduced after the crisis.
In the nickel crisis, the surge in prices started as the invasion of Ukraine sparked fears over supply from Russia, providing a fundamental pretext for funds to build up long positions. The gloomy fundamental backdrop meant there were few bulls in sight at an annual gathering of the metals world in London last week, and bearish investors may feel emboldened to double down on their positions if nickel does start flooding in.
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