Gazing into the recession crystal ball

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Gazing into the recession crystal ball
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The protracted trade war between China and the United States and a deteriorating...

NEW YORK - The protracted trade war between China and the United States and a deteriorating global growth outlook have left investors nervous that the longest expansion in American history is at risk of ending.

An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on short-term bonds are higher than those on long-term bonds, a sign investors are so worried about the future that they are willing to hold long-term bonds, which are usually viewed as a safer alternative to stocks and other investments, even when the payouts are low.

That gauge has a solid track record as a predictor of recessions. But it can take as long as two years for a recession to follow a yield curve inversion. While the inverted yield curve reverted to normal in October, that does not mean that the economy is out of the woods. On the contrary, such a return to normalcy after an inversions is an oft-repeated pattern before a recession.

A positive output gap, like the one that exists now, indicates the economy is operating above its potential. Typically the economy operates furthest below its potential at the end of recessions and peaks above its potential toward the end of expansions.Consumer demand is a critical driver of the U.S. economy, and historically consumer confidence wanes during downturns. Currently consumer confidence is near cyclical highs.

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