Global thermal coal prices are stabilising this year in a range near $200 a tonne that is less than half of 2022's record highs, analysts and industry officials say, with rising supplies providing respite to consumers roiled by last year's volatility.
said in April it expected the index to average $175 over 9-12 months. Australia's chief economist expects Newcastle benchmark prices to average $212 this year.
"We expect coal prices including the Newcastle benchmark to remain supported mostly due to higher cash costs for the coal miners," said DBX's Claude, explaining why prices likely aren't headed back to pre-invasion, pre-pandemic levels.
Steep discounts to benchmark prices helped Russia lure Asian buyers after the Western sanctions prevented sales to Europe, but that advantage is disappearing. A plunge in natural gas prices is expected to aid Europe's shift away from coal this year as well and that will have a similar effect.
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