Gold prices got knocked lower in the wake of the September Fed meeting as the FOMC signaled additional rate hikes over the coming months. Technical analysis studies suggest more weakness may be ahead for gold prices.
Historically, gold prices have a relationship with volatility unlike other asset classes. While other asset classes like bonds and stocks don’t like increased volatility – signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc. – gold tends to benefit during periods of higher volatility. Gold volatility has pulled back modestly, and in the context of higher US yields and a strongerGold volatility was trading at 17.91 at the time this report was written.
Momentum is still bearish. Gold prices are bck below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs, and the EMA envelope is in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is trending lower below its signal line, and daily Slow Stochastics are holding in oversold territory. A drop below 1653.87 would open up the floor for a move into the 1630s by the end of the month.
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