Whether or not a recession is just around the corner is a hotly debated topic among U.S. stock market watchers.
Expecting the U.S. to narrowly avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs recommends aerospace and defense stocks because of their defensive qualities and zero reliance on China sales.When a recession didn't occur following the ISM dropping below 50, Goldman Sachs pointed out that aerospace and defense stocks outpaced the growth of the S&P 500 in the six months after.
Expecting the U.S. to narrowly avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs recommends one group of stocks with a good track record in this type of precarious environment: Aerospace and defense companies. As an added bonus, Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said aerospace and defense stocks come "with the lowest exposure to China."the ISM manufacturing index, which last week fell
So in other words, when economic conditions deteriorate but ultimately do not lead to a recession, the stock market typically does well in this period with defensive-type stocks outperforming. The S&P 500 has historically gained 22% in the six months following an ISM contraction that doesn't lead to a recession. And Aerospace/defense stocks do even better, gaining an additional 2.5% during the same period, Goldman found.
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