A recent court victory by the world's largest Bitcoin fund increases chances it will convert into an ETF. But the market is pricing it largely like before.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust , the world’s largest Bitcoin fund at about $16.3 billion under management, won a major court victory this week, increasing the likelihood it will convert into an exchange-traded fund.
Grayscale for years has sought to convert GBTC into an ETF, which would completely erase the difference. The Securities and Exchange Commission consistently shot down the applications, along with those of other fund providers, arguing the Bitcoin market has insufficient surveillance to detect fraud and manipulation.
Analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, for example, earlier this week put the odds of the SEC approving Bitcoin ETFs this year at 75% and the odds for such funds being approved by the end of 2024 at 95%.
“This isn’t an instantaneous conversion,” added McClurg, who said his fund traded around the court ruling but still owns shares. Grayscale this week also said it was reviewing the court’s opinion and would pursue its next steps with the SEC. “The odds of the SEC rejecting the application this time are limited because the court’s decision was so firmly worded, and we believe it knows it would lose again in court if it did deny the application,” wrote analysts for Compass Point Research & Trading in a research note on Wednesday.
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