Southwest Gulf disturbance has a low chance of tropical development, but could help enhance rainfall on the northern Gulf Coast this week:
less than an hour agoUpper-level winds are not favorable for fast development of this systemA disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is being monitored for possible tropical development, and while that's unlikely to happen quickly, it could enhance rainfall on the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.
The disturbance is currently located near the southwest Gulf, as depicted by the "X" in the map below. It's been designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center , which is athat are being monitored for the possible formation of a tropical depression. Invest 91L will not be in an atmospheric environment that is hospitable for it to gain much organization as it moves in a northerly direction within the shaded area in the map below over the Gulf through midweek. That's because the NHC says upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for the development of this system.The bottom line is we do not expect a repeat of the rapid development we saw with Hurricane Ida in the Gulf because of the relatively hostile upper-level wind pattern.
Enhanced rainfall is one impact this system could bring to the northern Gulf Coast by midweek, regardless of development. That's because its tropical moisture and energy could interact with another disturbance and an associated cold front moving into the Deep South. Given how saturated the northern Gulf Coast is right now, we'll be monitoring this area for the potential of locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding early to midweek because of this setup.The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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