Researchers say planetary warming made the flood 50 times more likely.
before it reached Libya, though the connection was not quite as strong. They estimated that in those areas, global warming increased the odds of such intense rainfall by tenfold.Their analysis involves using climate data and weather model simulations to compare the current climate to that of the late 1800s, when the planet was about 1.2 degrees Celsius cooler, on average.
The rainfall over Libya was more intense because it was the product of what is known as a Medicane, or a tropical cyclone-like storm that forms over the Mediterranean. The sea, like vast swaths of the world’s oceans this summer, is significantly warmer than normal for this time of year. Warmer water is more prone to evaporation, and warmer air can hold more moisture.
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