China haters have been waiting for a financial crisis out of China since at least the early 2000s. Some bad news...
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Chinese policymakers need to guard against a renewed build-up of financial stability risks, Subbaraman says. Casandra looks at five early warning indicators, including debt-service ratio gap with a particular country’s historic average; joint credit and real property price gaps with the average; joint credit and real effective exchange rate gaps; joint DSR and REER gaps; and finally, a combination of all three credit indicators above.
From historical results, at least 30 flashing early warning indicators has signaled a threshold breach since the early 1990s, and 17 countries that have had 30 or more flashing indicators either experienced a financial crisis or a large-scale drop in domestic demand within three years. A worker on a bridge under construction for China's high-speed rail network in Donghai county, in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province in 2019.Chinese GDP growth over the last several years has centered on a number of things beyond the market’s favorite—consumer spending. It’s been based on commodity hoarding, oversupply, and fixed asset investment in things like roads, rail, and real estate, primarily.
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