With midterms upon us, can we find out what voters are really thinking?
After the noisy 2020 election season in the United States, journalists wrote extensively about the inaccuracy of preelection polls. They weren’t the only ones. According to a report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research entitled 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls, 2020 polls were off by the largest magnitude in decades at both the federal and state levels.
With the 2022 election year underway, one way to counteract the “shyness” problem is for pollsters to give the people they survey plausible deniability. That is, a person should be able to respond to a question honestly, while preventing the pollster from knowing whether the answer is that person’s actual opinion. This could be especially useful in countries having autocratic leaders who might wreak vengeance on dissenters.
Let’s say, two hundred people answer the poll: 140 pick Scarecrow and 60 pick Tin Man. Given what the pollsters have told the pollees, roughly 100 people will respond “Scarecrow” regardless of their preference just because of the 50-50 probability of a coin toss; they flipped tails. Of the remaining 100 who flipped heads, 40 prefer Scarecrow and 60 prefer Tin Man, so Tin Man is the favorite.
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Russian debt coin toss will get harder to callGazprom and Rosneft are repaying bonds despite fears Moscow may renege on its own debt. The depressed prices of Russian corporate debt mean investors who rightly bet on repayment can double their money. Yet rising tensions and murky workouts mean the trade will get riskier.
Leer más »
Siblings face fraud charges for alleged 'Ormeus Coin' crypto schemeJohn and Tina Barksdale were charged Tuesday for alleged securities fraud, wire fraud and conspiracies to commit both by selling a cryptocurrency called “Ormeus Coin.”
Leer más »
Biden's executive order on cryptocurrency opens the door for a US coin | EngadgetPresident Biden has signed an executive order detailing US cryptocurrency strategy, including the technology's risks and potential..
Leer más »
'Radically Different': This Could Be The Most Accurate Flat World Map Ever MadeAdmit it. We all have our favorite world map, where the place we call home sits right at the center. When that world map is flipped upside down or shifted to the left or right, everything feels… unbalanced.
Leer más »
Revealed: How Effective Crypto Ads at Super Bowl Were | CoinMarketCapCrypto exchanges spent millions of dollars on Super Bowl ads — but was it worth it? 🧐 New research reveals which adverts viewers remembered most... and the results are pretty surprising 👇
Leer más »
It’s 2022 and the Magic Mouse still charges from the bottomApple still wants you to flip the mouse over to charge it.
Leer más »