Two events that can negatively affect your investing behavior are about to converge on March 13, MktwHulbert writes.
Two events that can negatively influence investor behavior are about to converge on March 13: the shift to daylight-saving time and the beginning of the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament, a.k.a. “March Madness.”
Note that this result is an average across many countries and years, and the market doesn’t always produce a below-average return on the Monday following the shift to DST. But it did last year in the U.S.: The S&P 500 SPX, -1.45% slipped 0.7% on that day one year ago, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.76% fell 2%.
I mention the DST anomaly not because it is something you should try to trade on. On the contrary, the investment implication is that you should sit on your hands and resist the temptation to trade. That’s because your information-processing abilities and judgment will be impaired. Just as you don’t drive after drinking, you shouldn’t make changes to your portfolio after losing sleep.
The researchers primarily focused on World Cup, finding that, on average, a given country’s loss in the marquee soccer event’s elimination stage is followed by its stock market the next day producing a return that is significantly below average. The professors also studied cricket, rugby and basketball effects, as well, with similar results.
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