GM hopes for a million mile life from the Origin, but will it be obsolete before then? Many factors go into figuring out the right lifetime in miles and years.
All this is important because you need to decide how much your robotaxi is a consumable—like a tank of gasoline—that wears out mostly as used, or an asset, that is wasted when not used fully. Today, taxis are in the former camp, which contradicts the common talking point about how private cars sit idle 90% of the time and are thus “wasted.” A consumable is not wasted when it sits idle, at least not that much.
Unless you are in a pilot project with far fewer vehicles than you have demand for, the demand on your fleet will vary during the day, and be highest at “peak” or rush hour times. If you have enough vehicles to meet customer demand at 8am, it’s extremely difficult to keep all those vehicles busy during the night, which you would need to do if you want them to work 20 hours/day.
Pool riders on-peak. If you can effectively convince rush-hour customers to ride with others, you can meet that rush demand with the smaller fleet that you can keep occupied off-peak. You must have a superb pooling service that removes the many barriers that have kept group transport low-usage—consider how UberPool and public transit ridership are, and it’s not great.
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