The market is now grappling with the likelihood of no trade deal, but the critical issue is tariffs.
I asked UBS Art Cashin if traders would be satisfied with 1) no new tariffs on Dec. 15, 2) keeping additional tariffs, and 3) no deal going into the new year.
If additional tariffs are put on Dec. 15, that is a different story: "Then there's another sell-off. If they put on additional tariffs and he bumps them by 10% or 15%, a sell-off but nothing severe. 50% or something like that? Better put on your helmet," Cashin said., which is down 3.5% this week and which has a huge manufacturing footprint in China around its iPhone, is particularly susceptible to an escalation in the trade war, according to Dan Ives at Wedbush.
Despite signs that even a so-called phase one trade deal might not be achieved, bulls are still holding out the prospects that the markets might be mollified by some sign — any sign — that talks are continuing. "If a trip takes place, it could be announced sometime late this week for negotiations mid-to-late next week," he said. "This could provide an opportunity for officials to rebuild good faith around avoiding the Dec. 15 tariffs.""Alternatively, direct intervention by Trump and Xi following a phone call may further extend the current tariff schedule," he said. "There is speculation that the Nov. APEC summit could be rescheduled for some time in Jan.
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