When what's next is uncertain, futurists think in the short-term and the long-term simultaneously.
from $65 billion in 2000 to less than $19 billion industrywide in 2016. In the U.S., 1,800 newspapers closed between 2004 and 2018. Publishers made a series of short-term tactical responses without ever developing a clear vision for the industry’s evolution. Similar stories have played out across other sectors, including professional services, wired communications carriers, savings and loan banks, and manufacturing.
Tactical decisions must fit into an organization’s strategy. At this point in the cone, we are a little less certain of outcomes, because we’re looking at the next 24 months to five years. This area is what’s most familiar to strategy officers and their teams: We’re describing traditional strategy and the direction the organization will take. Our actions include defining priorities, allocating resources, and making any personnel changes needed.
But the vision for an organization must also fit into the last category: systems-level disruption that could unfold in the farther future. If executive leaders do not have a strong sense of how their industry must evolve to meet the challenges of new technology, market forces, regulation, and the like, then someone else will be in a position to dictate the terms of your future.
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