Reading polls can be hazardous to your health. Symptoms include: - Cherry-picking - Overconfidence - Falling for junky numbers - Rushing to judgment Here are FiveThirtyEight's guidelines for interpreting polls—in primary season and beyond.
! For example, if a poll of the 2018 Florida governor race showed former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum ahead of former Rep. Ron DeSantis 47 percent to 46 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, you’d want to keep in mind that. Remember, too, that the margin of error applies to each candidate’s polling number, not to the difference between the candidates. So if both numbers are off by the margin of error, the difference between them could be off by twice as much.
Sample size is important too — a smaller sample means a larger margin of error — but good polling is expensive, so the best pollsters may wind up with smaller samples. And that’s OK. As long as you heed the margin of error, a poll with a sample size of, say, 300 isn’t inherently untrustworthy. That said, don’t dive too much into one poll’s crosstabs — that’s where sample sizesget unacceptably small and margins of error get unacceptably big.
Speaking of which, consider the motive of whoever is sharing the survey. Polls sponsored by a candidate or interest group will probably be. You should be especially suspicious of internal polls that lack details on how they were conducted . If you get your news from a partisan outlet, it may also selectively cover only polls that are good for its side.
Next, beware of polls that have drastically different results from all the others. They often turn out to be outliers — although not always (
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has topped Democrats' list of most-liked 2020 candidates, according to new surveyNew York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had the highest unfavorable rating, at 30 percent, of the 10 candidates measured.
Leer más »
Indian Americans, a rising political force, give $3 million to 2020 presidential campaignsIndian Americans represent just over 1% of the U.S. population. But they have contributed more than $3 million to 2020 presidential campaigns — more than the coveted donors of Hollywood.
Leer más »
Peaty wins breaststroke gold, targets 'low 56' for 2020Adam Peaty collected his third straight 100 metres breaststroke world title on M...
Leer más »
With Just 6 Weeks to Go, the 2020 Record of the Year Grammy Race Takes ShapeWe're just six weeks away from the end of the eligibility year for the 62nd annual Grammy Awards. Where has the time gone? The eligibility year runs from Oct. 1, 2018, through Aug. 31 and the show airs Jan. 26, 2020.
Leer más »
Governor will not seek 2020 reelection amid firestorm over vulgar chat room talkThe embattled governor of Puerto Rico is bracing for the largest protest against his administration as thousands of demonstrators plan to take to the streets of the Caribbean island's capital on Monday to reiterate demands for his resignation.
Leer más »