If Trump removes tariffs, the trade war would be over and China wins
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Should tariffs be removed as a gesture of peace with China, the trade war is over and China can take a victory lap. With no new jobs to make up for Samsung’s plant closure, some 60% of nearby businesses such as restaurants and shops have closed, theChina is getting a taste of what off-shoring has done to blue collar labor across the United States since the 1980s, and at an increasing pace since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. It is not easy for cities to replace those jobs. China may come to discover this fact so long as tariffs remain a part of doing business with the U.S.
“I think there’s a 70% probability that tariffs go up, and that is way off market,” says Brian McCarthy, chief strategist for Macrolens, a boutique investment research firm focusing on China these days. “How bad the market sells off if tariffs do go up is dependent on China’s response. If they have a big hissy fit of some form, it’s going to be bad.”
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