A crash in Australian thermal coal prices is raising fresh questions about the v...
Apart from the economics of the mine, Adani faces other headwinds, including an Australian coal boom that has probably peaked, analysts said.
“The boom period for Australian thermal coal exports has plateaued” said Peter Kiernan, lead energy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Singapore. “A sharp reduction in coal use from export markets such as China, Japan, and India represents a considerable threat,” he said. As an integrated producer selling to its own plants in India, Adani may also be able to offset small margins with gains elsewhere, such as giving other parties access to its planned rail line if authorities allow new mines in the same coal basin.
The Australian Department of Industry, Innovation and Science expects thermal coal imports from Japan, Australia’s biggest buyer, to shrink to 131 million tonnes a year by 2024 from over 140 million tonnes last year. Australian producers are struggling to make inroads in coal’s remaining boom markets of South Asia in the face of lower-cost competition from Indonesia.
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