With the first three spots on the ballot in Alaska's US Senate race seemingly locked in, 16 other candidates are vying for the last spot. Via AlaskaBeacon
“And then the other guy is Sean Thorne, who is the Libertarian, and Libertarians tend to be fairly loyal third-party voters,” Moore said.
Another way a candidate could emerge in the No. 4 spot is if “some other political interest decided to prop them up” because it would be advantageous for one of the competitive candidates, Heckendorn said. For instance, “maybe the Murkowski campaign decides that Dustin Darden might pull a few votes from Tshibaka, because Tshibaka would be the competitive candidate most closely aligned with Dustin Darden, but I have not seen any evidence that that’s happening.”Moore said whoever comes in fourth is “completely irrelevant because they’re going to get eliminated first and then it’ll be down to a three-person race.
Ephraim Froehlich, managing principal at policy consulting firm AKWA-DC, disagrees. He said the fourth slot winner is “vitally impactful” for the results of a ranked choice general election. Froehlich was on the advisory board for Alaskans for Better Elections in November 2020 when ranked choice voting was on the ballot.
“That fourth candidate will likely be eliminated first, and thus their votes redistributed. If it’s a candidate with polarizing views in any direction, Murkowski is unlikely to get their second-place votes. If it’s a more centrist candidate like Gungerstein, who is spending significant targeted online ad dollars, Alaska’s senior senator will benefit. In any case, the importance and result of that fourth-place slot cannot be ignored.
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