When Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meet virtually on Tuesday the two presidents will have to negotiate a history of mutual suspicion as they take up the urgent issue of a major Russian military buildup on the Ukraine border.
The key question hanging over the talks -- and the subject of keen debate among analysts and political leaders -- is whether Putin might actually launch a cross-border offensive, or whether he is using the troops to pressure Biden for guarantees ex-Soviet Ukraine will never become a NATO launchpad.
Many analysts doubt that Putin would carry through with an invasion -- which would inevitably prompt international condemnation and probably new sanctions -- but at least some take a darker view. They first met in person in the Kremlin in 2011. Then vice president Biden later said he told the Russian leader, "I don't think you have a soul" They met again in 2014 in Geneva to deal with the now familiar issue of Russian military pressure on Ukraine.Contacts have continued since -- as have tensions, with Putin seen as eager to pressure Biden into another in-person summit as a way to project parity on the world stage.
Following Putin's lead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday called on US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to provide "security guarantees" that NATO would not come closer to Russia's border. NATO recognized Kiev in June 2020 as one of a handful of so-called "enhanced opportunity partners," potentially a step toward membership.Heather Conley, a former assistant US secretary of state for European affairs, said she believes Putin is willing to apply "enormous pressure" in the Ukraine standoff.
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