In a world desperate for good news about the coronavirus, a dip in global carbon emissions caused by the outbreak’s economic downturn might be seen as a silver lining. But climate scientists and policy experts aren’t encouraged.
Global oil demand has plummeted by an estimated 20 percent as economies around the world have ground to a halt, cars and trucks have been idled and dramatically fewer jets leave contrails across the sky. As expected, March data compiled by San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography appears to show the rate of rise of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has slowed.
“There is this narrative that to make 1.5 degrees, we have to reduce emissions by 7 percent a year,” Jackson said. “That’s basically impossible without a complete global shutdown, which is what we’re seeing now. So it will be interesting to see if we can even make 7 percent this year and I’m skeptical that we will. Emissions will clearly be down this year, there’s no doubt about that, but they won’t be down for the right reason.
The way world governments go about jump-starting their economies also provides an opportunity similar to the one last seen during 2008’s Great Recession. “That was a severe global economic downturn and the effect on emissions was surprisingly small,” Jackson said. “The question for the coronavirus pandemic is, are we back to normal in six months or do things change fundamentally, either because the economy crashes in a more catastrophic way or because we use this as an opportunity to rethink our energy and consumption?”
Trump has shown little interest in transitioning the U.S. from a carbon-based economy. Earlier this month, the president directed the Department of Energy to purchase crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while prices are low. In short, whatever connection can be made from the coronavirus and climate change is not encouraging. For Jackson, it has at least provided an analogy.
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