College football odds, picks and prediction for Indiana Hoosiers vs Penn State Nittany Lions. Week 9 betting free pick and game analysis.
Despite Penn State's poor offensive showing last week against Ohio State, we expect James Franklin's program to run up the score in Week 9 when they take on a porous Hoosiers defense. Read more in our Indiana vs. Penn State betting picks.Questions are flying about whether James Franklin will ever have Penn State truly competing with the big boys of the Big Ten after the Nittany Lions fell on their face against Ohio State last week.
What makes the difference here is how bad Indiana has been on defense this season. The Hoosiers rank 105th in EPA per play, 107th in EPA per pass, and 93rd in EPA per rush. The easiest path for Penn State to beat up on the Hoosiers and ensure they hit the Over is by sticking to the ground game. Indiana is giving up 174.4 rushing yards per game, fourth most in the Power Five.
Penn State has averaged 39.7 points per game behind its physical running attack and efficient passing game. While sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has yet to put it all together, he doesn’t turn the ball over and does a good job getting it in the hands of his playmakers. Indiana has the fewest wins of all those programs for a reason and has allowed 42.3 points per game in its last three Big Ten games.If this Over is going to hit, it’s because Penn State has put up enough points to cover the spread — something Indiana has only done once in a Big Ten game this season. The Hoosiers are 0-4 in the Big Ten and are losing by an average of 27 points.
Few teams have been as dominant against the spread this season as Penn State, who hold a 6-1 record against it. The loss to Ohio State as four-point dogs was the only time Franklin’s team hasn’t covered this season.
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