*INVESTORS PREPARE FOR GOVERNMENT GRIDLOCK AS REPUBLICANS SEEN GAINING IN U.S. MIDTERMS - 🇺🇸🇺🇸
NEW YORK - Investors were weighing a less clear outcome in the U.S. midterm elections on Wednesday, with Democrats doing better than expected, making questions about fiscal spending and regulation more ambiguous.
While macroeconomic concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy have been the dominant forces behind market moves this year, Capitol Hill politics could exert influence on asset prices. Historically, stocks have tended to do better under a split government when a Democrat is in the White House, with investors attributing some of that performance to political gridlock that prevents major policy changes.returns have been 14% in a split Congress and 13% in a Republican-held Congress under a Democratic president, according to data since 1932 analyzed by RBC Capital Markets. That compares with 10% when Democrats controlled the presidency and Congress.
"This will almost certainly be the end of the tax rises the Biden administration had been talking about imposing on U.S. corporations and the well-off," said Cole. Conversely, a Democrat surprise could mean a stronger dollar and higher yields as possible fiscal expansion could require more rate increases, analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
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