Investors await the release of special counsel Robert Mueller's report, but analysts say it is unlikely to change the growing sense in markets that President Trump can win reelection if the economy remains solid.
The release of special counsel Robert Mueller's report is unlikely to change the growing sense in markets that President Donald Trump can win reelection if the economy remains solid, analysts say.
"A lot of this is priced in already, and the market is saying that Trump is going to be the candidate," said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas."The risks of impeachment are very low even if there's something in that report. I think the consensus view holds, and does it make it easier to get a China deal through? The answer is yes."
But even so, the headlines coming from the Mueller report are not expected to rock the stock market unless they start to seriously weaken Trump. "I think a loss of the Republican side would have Wall Street's expectations dialed back, and there would be concerns around regulations and different tax policies. I think that would hurt outlooks. To the extent it would move the needle one way or other, it would have impact, but I don't think it will," he said."I still think the bigger thing ultimately will be where the economy goes. If the economy does fade or accelerates again going into the election, that's huge.
Clifton said since the release of the Barr report, his firm's clients have become more convinced that Trump will win reelection. That's the part of the report that can be used by government officials to prevent further interference. But the report will also focus on the activities of Trump campaign officials and whether they were unwittingly duped by Russians.
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