The narrative that the Democratic primary has collapsed into a three-way race between Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders is still going strong—but is it correct? NateSilver538 breaks it down:
Note: Steve Bullock was demoted into the “everyone else” tier.
Even if you do have Biden, Warren and Sanders as your top three candidates , there’s no particular reason to draw a firm line at three candidates as opposed to some other number. If you’re just looking at national polls, then Biden’s still in a tier by himself. Prediction markets basically have it as a two-horse race between Warren and Biden.
Technically speaking, the chart covers the first half of the year before the election — we’re now in the second half — but it would look essentially the same if you ran it with second half data instead so we’re just going to run with it.Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.
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