The Asian tigers are more vulnerable to the Sino-American clash than most other economies
laughing. She just discovered the crisp red “Make America Great Again” hat that a colleague left on her desk as a joke. The chairwoman of Giant, the world’s biggest bike manufacturer, is no fan of Donald Trump. His tariffs have messed with her supply chains and driven up costs. “It’s a tax on biking, the healthiest activity in the world,” bemoans the feisty 70-year-old, an avid cyclist herself. In response, Giant has scaled back production in China and ramped up in Taiwan.
That trade friction should unsettle them is only natural. Exports, after all, have been at the heart of their post-war success. South Korea began with tinplate, plywood and textiles. Its exporters benefited from cheap credit, exemptions from import duties and a devaluation of the won in 1964 .
Much of the world has lost ground to China over the past 20 years. Yet the tigers’ share of global merchandise exports has been steady at 10% . Japan, their erstwhile mentor, has seen its share fall to less than 4%, half what it was in 2000. Both Singapore and Hong Kong have strengthened their roles as the management hubs of “Factory Asia”. More than 4,000 companies have chosen Singapore as a regional headquarters, often to oversee South-East Asia. Hong Kong has fewer, with roughly 1,500 headquarters, but it has been far more successful than Singapore at luring Chinese companies to its stock exchange. Its stockmarket is worth more than $4trn; Singapore’s is closer to $700bn.
Another response is to try to patch up the global trading order. Before 2000 the tigers were party to just five regional trade agreements; they have since joined 49 more. Singapore was an originator of both the Trans-Pacific Partnership and its supposed rival, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes China. It is also among the countries working to broker a compromise between China and America that will keep the World Trade Organisation functioning.
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