The National Hurricane Center is monitoring something near Florida on May 1st. Isn't that early?
American Meteorological Society said:
In the past decade, half of the Atlantic’s seasons had “preseason” storms. In 2012, two storms—Alberto and Beryl—were named before the season officially started. And last year, Ana formed east of Georgia on May 7. Granted, it was initially a subtropical storm, a hybrid with both tropical features and features of midlatitude cyclones. But waters were warm and Ana became fully tropical in just days, and moved ashore in South Carolina on May 10.
The waters in the region are certainly warm enough to allow for some strengthening of the system, but the wind shear is likely not conducive for producing a tropical storm or hurricane. Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center says,"locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next couple of days."Experts have called for"below normal" activity in the Atlantic basin.
This is, in part, related to the presence of an ongoing El Nino. However, I always encourage the reader to consider two things: It only takes one devastating storm to impact society so don't get too hung up on overall activity, and Focus on impacts of these tropical systems rather than their category. The current system has only a 20% chance of further development within 5 days and will likely never receive a name. However, its rainfall might still cause problems.
Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Dir., Atmospheric Sciences Program/GA Athletic Assoc. Distinguished Professor , Host, Weather Channel's Popular Podcast, Weather Geeks, 2013 AMS PresidentDr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert in weather and climate, was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society and is Director of the U...
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