Lombardy is the epicentre of Italy's outbreak. Its number of cases represent almost half the national total
, a Milanese corporate lawyer from Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, is health minister in the regional government of Lombardy. “We are working hour by hour,” he said on March 17th. “Yesterday, we were almost [down] to zero beds in intensive care.” What were lacking were ventilators to go with the other equipment. But then the Red Cross offered 30. “When, at 10pm, the news came through of those 30 ventilators, I almost wept,” said Mr Gallera.
The next few days will be crucial in showing whether draconian containment measures ordered by the central government will begin to slow the spread of the virus in northern Italy and mitigate its effects on the rest of the country, where it could speedily overwhelm health services far weaker than that of prosperous Lombardy.
The extent and duration of the epidemic will also determine its impact on a weak economy. Francesco Daveri, who teaches macroeconomics at Bocconi University in Milan, says much depends on when the country returns to normal. If it is in June, he conjectures that the fall infor 2020 could be 2-3%—substantially less than the 5.5% fall in 2009 after the financial crisis. That is a big “if”, though.
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