According to a Rutgers study, the distribution of allergenic pollens may change as the world continues to warm. A team of researchers from the Rutgers Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute used computer modeling to study the impact of climate change on the distribution of oak and
The study found that even under moderate warming conditions, pollen season in the U.S. will begin earlier and last longer, with higher average pollen concentrations in most parts of the country.
“Pollen is an excellent sentinel for the impacts of climate change because shifts in variables like carbon dioxide and temperature affect the way plants behave,” said Georgopoulos, who also is director of the Computational Chemodynamics Laboratory at Rutgers and faculty at Robert Wood Johnson Medical School.
To overcome this challenge, the researchers adapted the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system, an open-source tool managed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to simulate distributions of allergenic oak and ragweed pollen for historical and future conditions. Regional pollen shifts were observed, too. In parts of Nevada and northern Texas, oak pollen levels could double by mid-century, while Massachusetts and Virginia could see an 80 percent increase in ragweed pollen by 2050.
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