2 experts break down what to look for in the upcoming jobs report.
The June jobs report comes at a tentative time for the economy, and it may provide the signal the Fed needs to cut interest rates at the end of the month.
Telecommunications workers Chris Viens and Guy Glover install a new 5G antenna system for AT&T's 5G wireless network in downtown San Diego, California, April 23, 2019.Ten years into the recovery, the economy's ability to create new jobs may be slowing both because the U.S. is running out of workers, and also because the trade war may be worrying employers.
"We've known for a while with a very low unemployment rate that we're running out of workers. Payroll gains are going to slow at some point. I don't know if this is the point or not. I don't' trust the ADP number. I don't know if the day of seeing 200,000 job numbers is over," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank.
But ADP's data also contained some worrisome details, such as the decline of 37,000 jobs in companies employing one to 19 people. "The thing that's really puzzling is the slowdown in small business hiring. That's really the engine for job growth in the economy. Seeing that slowdown is concerning," said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies.
But the average hourly wage number inside Friday's report could also be a factor for the Fed, especially if it's shy of expectations.
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