Hours away from the speaker vote, Kevin McCarthy appears to be walking to the House floor without enough votes to be speaker.
When a new Congress convenes on Tuesday, lawmakers will do what they have done for centuries: elect a speaker.
“Thus far, there continue to be missing specific commitments with respect to virtually every component of our entreaties,” the group wrote on Sunday. But McCarthy’s opposition is undoubtedly a small minority of the GOP’s new, 222-seat House majority. They’re a miniscule faction of hardline conservatives, many with personal bones to pick and plenty of enemies in their own right. The problem is, McCarthy’s opponents don’t have to be large in numbers to be effective.
However, one of the few things in McCarthy’s favor is that the Republicans opposing his speakership don’t have a real alternative. Rep. Bob Good told Fox News Monday he believes a “true” conservative would emerge amid the chaos. One of McCarthy’s most ardent detractors, Rep. Matt Gaetz has publicly and repeatedly urged Jordan to run. While Jordan unsuccessfully challenged McCarthy for the role of minority leader in 2018, he has since become a stalwart ally of leadership.
Some of their demands have been easy, like ending remote voting, removing metal detectors from outside the House chamber, and ensuring bills are posted for 72 hours before they’re put to a vote. McCarthy has already made agreements on these contentions.
That specific change may be one of the toughest; if Republicans are already going to have trouble passing legislation with such a slim and unruly majority, then the difficulty would only be compounded if every member could offer amendments. A common tactic of the minority is offering politically tricky amendment votes on legislation to put members on the record, whether that be on abortion, Confederate statues, or any other politically thorny issue.
Ultimately, McCarthy’s calculus may be that he’d rather be speaker under almost impossible conditions than not be speaker and preserve the ability of someone else to govern more effectively.
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