Analysts say Canadian crude could suffer a significant price impact if the pipeline is shut down for more than a few days
On Thursday, for example, the differential between Western Canada Select and the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was about US$29 per barrel .Article content
“If this lasts a long time, and you begin to have egress constraints again, that starts nudging the differential open,” said Rory Johnston, an oil markets analyst and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter.Article content There have been a handful of spills along the pipeline’s route in recent years, the most significant of which were in November 2017 and October 2019.
However, the 2017 spill also came at a time when Canada had significantly less pipeline space. The addition of Enbridge’s Line 3 replacement project, which came online in 2021, has added significant capacity.“Because don’t know how long is going to be shut, it’s pretty mild,” Muralidharan said, adding the price of WTI jumped immediately after news of the spill broke but has since settled.
Wednesday’s spill has also provided ammunition for environmental activists south of the border. In a statement, Catherine Collentine of the Sierra Club referred to a “toxic” spill from the Keystone pipeline and used the negative term “tar sands” to describe Canada’s oil-producing region of northern Alberta.
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