Crude prices have oddly fallen since a new war broke out in the Middle East. But growing demand could push prices over $100 next year.
Wars almost always bring upheavals in securities, currencies, and commodities. The lack of impact from the Israel-Hamas war has been remarkable, even puzzling, especially for oil, which might be expected to have been affected most directly by the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister blamed speculators for the slide in prices. Oil demand is robust, said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, according to Bloomberg. “People are pretending it’s weak. It’s all a ploy.” These technical factors might explain some of oil’s slide over the past month or so. But the decline appears fundamentally driven. There is no shortage of supply, while worries persist about the global economy.
AAA’s tracking of gasoline prices shows a drop of 30 cents a gallon in the past month, to $3.704 on Thursday. UBS’ Global Wealth Management also sees Brent moving higher, to the $90 to $100 a barrel range. Stronger global demand plus discipline by oil producers should underpin the market, the firm says in a client note.
Israel-Hamas War Securities Currencies Commodities Oil Prices Middle East Conflict
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