LAPD stands by its predictive policing software. But cops don't.
Tattoo shop owner Edward Everett shows LAPD Senior Lead Officers Denise Vasquez, center, and Oscar Bocanegra where cars have been burglarized on Sherman Way in Reseda. The officers patrol where a computer program predicts property crimes will occur.
“We tested the software and eventually subscribed to the service for a few years, but ultimately the results were mixed and we discontinued the service in June 2018,” spokeswoman Katie Nelson said in a statement. Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore says a data program that predicts locations of property crimes is a useful tool. intended to identify individuals most likely to commit violent crimes and announced he would modify others.
“It never panned out,” said Rodriguez, who spent 11 years with the LAPD. “It didn't really make much sense to us. It wasn’t telling us anything we didn’t know.” UCLA anthropology professor P. Jeffrey Brantingham, who helped develop the software and co-founded the company, said the technology behind the program — data-crunching and geo-mapping — is sound.The Hagerstown, Md., Police Department canceled its $15,000-a-year software service in 2018 because of budget constraints, Chief Paul Kifer said.
While other departments have spent money on the software, the LAPD made its first payment — $50,000 — this year for server maintenance, he said. The department recently began posting the maps online and sharing them on social media — publicity that in itself may serve to deter crime. “When there is a lull in action, you are expected to be in the areas,” Embrich said of officers. “We’re targeting where the crime is. It’s paying off for us. Their presence is a deterrence to crime.”
As the duo cruised through residential areas, they scanned yards between houses and alleys for suspicious activity.On commercial corridors, officers also walk the streets to talk to business owners about what could be driving up crime. In the West Valley Division, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts rose 3% and 9%, respectively, from April to May, records show.
“It’s very, very valuable to have police in a high-crime area,” he said. “If it gets them in certain areas between answering calls, it helps. The visibility absolutely helps.”But the use of complicated algorithms for data-driven programs like PredPol makes it difficult to evaluate their overall effectiveness in targeting crime. Since the programs forecast risk, much of their efficacy is in crimes never committed, some police officials argue.
“This discovery should call into question all studies done about PredPol and if the data used in these studies was even accurate.”Predpol and other data programs are far from perfect, but they are a tool police should use to help keep residents safe, said LAPD Officer Steve Gordon, a union director.
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