Biden is occupying the central space in the race, freezing things in place. For Democrats, it’s a dangerous situation
of others as his own. The point isn’t that his untruths are equal to Trump’s. But they’re part of a legion of liabilities that require a compelling reason to tolerate.Then, of course, there’s Biden’s activity in Ukraine. Anyone who thinks that Trump’s inexcusable use of national leverage abroad in pursuit of domestic partisan ends will give Biden an amulet against that history is mistaken. That neither Biden did anything criminal is also unimportant.
So far, Mayor Pete has been the shrewdest player when it comes to siphoning off Biden’s support. He’s a good politician. He’s smart. People who know him seem to like him. He expresses complex things simply. He has raised lots and lots of money from donors after moving into the establishment lane. But if he rises to the top it will be in part because voters panicked about Joe Biden, and his vulnerabilities will emerge fast and late.
This is the Biden problem. The Democratic field may not want to nominate an establishment candidate at all, but if it does, it will want its choice to be the strongest one. Biden’s presence makes it likelier and likelier that this won’t happen, either because he wins himself or because the ultimate nominee is chosen in haste, like John F. Kerry was in 2004 when feet grew cold onThat would be the worst-case scenario for Democrats, and it’s plausible enough to have a lot of donors scared.
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