The findings of the new poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the L.A. Times dispel the notion that California's solid Democratic voter majority will provide an impenetrable shield for Newsom.
Californians who say they expect to vote in the September recall election are almost evenly divided over whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office, evidence of how pivotal voter turnout will be in deciding the governor’s political fate, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.
Though Republicans account for only about a quarter of all registered voters in California, the poll found that they account for 33% of those most likely to cast ballots in the recall election. Democrats make up 46% of the state’s 22 million voters and “no party preference” voters 24%, but their share of the likely recall voters drops to 42% and 18% respectively, DiCamillo said.
Gilliard said he noticed that Newsom’s anti-recall campaign has shifted its political advertising strategy and is calling the recall a “scheme by Trump Republicans to take over California,” a strong indication about the governor’s level of concern.Newsom has long attempted to tie the recall effort to former President Trump, who was roundly defeated in California by President Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Political scientist Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, said voter turnout will hinge on a few crucial factors: Do Californians believe the recall election is important to their lives, how consequential will the outcome be to them, and do they think their vote matters? If Newsom is recalled, the candidate on the ballot who receives the most votes wins — no matter how many votes he or she receives. The crowded field of candidates is expected to splinter the electorate, which means a Republican who reels in just a small fraction of the vote could become California’s 41st governor. No Republican has won a statewide election in the state since 2006.
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