Services were hit early and hard in March, as travel, tourism and visits to restaurants dried up
FIRST, PEOPLE stopped travelling; then they gave up eating out. Now, all over the world, governments are telling them to stay at home. Over the past few weeks, a deep recession has come to be accepted as the inevitable economic price of slowing the advance of covid-19. On March 24th some of the earliest broad statistical indicators of how deep that recession might be in Western economies arrived, in the monthly purchasing managers’ indices published by IHS Markit, a data and research firm.
March’s PMI numbers were expected to be awful—as they had been in China a month before. And so they were, particularly in the euro area; and especially for services, which were hit early and hard, as travel, tourism and visits to restaurants dried up . In the euro zone, the overall, or composite, index plunged to 31.4, from 51.6 in February. That is the lowest since the index was created in 1998. The services index slumped from 52.6 to 28.4, beating the previous dire record of 39.
Britain’s figures weren’t as bad, but wretched all the same; and the country is a few weeks behind continental Europe both in the number of cases of the virus and in its restrictions on daily life. Only on March 23rd did the prime minister announce a near-total lockdown, and the survey was conducted from March 12th to 20th.
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