From a red-hot January as China cast off COVID curbs to February's flop when interest rates surged and now a manic March of banking blow-ups - financial markets have had an action-packed start to the year even by recent standards.
with a healthy 6% gain, government bonds up 3%-5%, gold 8% higher, energy prices sliding and the dollar barely budged.Global shares zoomed up 10% in January only to lose it all by the time Silicon Valley Bank, a mid-sized U.S. lender few had even heard of, collapsed and then the 167-year-old Swiss behemoth Credit Suisse required rescuing.
Equities are bouncing though now and U.S. and European government bond yields - the main drivers of global borrowing costs - are set for their biggest monthly"Within three months you have had three completely different stories," BofA analyst, David Hauner, said of the year so far. "January was an extremely strong start with China's reopening, but February we were back to pricing 6% Fed interest rates and the next thing has been the problems in the banking system."A key reason why asset prices have swung around so much is that market makers are unsure how big central banks will react now.
Two-year Treasury yields , which are highly sensitive to U.S. Federal Reserve moves, jumped from 4% to 5% in February, only to dive back to 3.5% when the SVB turmoil redrew the entire U.S. interest rate map.to its highest point since the 2008 meltdown. Europe too saw 2-year German yields arc from 2.5% to almost 3.5% and back, while changes at Japan's central bank have also been moving the dial.
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