The 2022 Senate results largely mirrored the 2020 presidential race, but a deeper analysis shows where each party gained and lost.
The presidential results from 2020 proved to be a key predictor of this year’s Senate race results, with Wisconsin as the only state where voters elected a senator from a different party than the presidential nominee they supported in 2020.
On the Democratic side, Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz outran Biden by the widest margin, taking 71% of the vote in November compared to Biden’s 64% in 2020.The 2022 margins did not show a clear pattern as to whether candidates endorsed by Trump fared better or worse than his 2020 numbers. Trump backed Scott and Rubio, for example, but not Thune, who clashed with Trump over his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
But some Trump-backed challengers in open seats, particularly in battleground races, tended to fare worse than the former president. Both Arizona’s Blake Masters and Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz’s vote shares were roughly 3 points lower than Trump’s in 2020. Utah Sen. Mike Lee also fared 5 points worse than Trump two years ago as he competed against independent Evan McMullin, a vocal Trump critic.
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