The Allianz chief economic advisor says he doesn't think the phase-one trade agreement is the first step to a long-term cooling in U.S.-China relations.
on Friday that the two countries had agreed to a partial trade deal after an 18-month trade war, in which both sides placed billions and billions of dollars of tariffs on each other's imports.said he would not implement to a new batch of tariffs that had been set for Sunday.However, some details — particularly around changes to intellectual property, technology and financial services, as well as amounts of farm purchases — remain murky.
El-Erian has long been skeptical that the U.S. and China could craft a trade deal that fully addresses many of the pressure points between the world's two largest economies., not even a truce, was the "best we can hope for." On Monday, El-Erian called Friday's agreement a "truce," but remains doubtful it will lead to a meaningful resolution.
While it may be a "constructive" force for the stock market, the Allianz economist said he does not believe the agreement will reduce uncertainty in the business community enough to lead to more investment. "Those who extrapolate this to mean a long, durable, comprehensive trade deal are wrong," he said. "The most likely next step is further tensions. All we're getting here is in both side's interest to just have a truce for the short term."
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