A Republican sweep would be good for telecoms and U.S. energy stocks, but a Democratic wave could lift transportation, Morgan Stanley says.
With the 2020 election now only a year away, Morgan Stanley put together a cheat sheet for investors to trade the eventual outcome. For example, the firm sees bank and oil stocks as the biggest winners if President Donald Trump wins re-election and the Republicans keep the Senate.Democrat wins White House, split Congress.Republicans sweep White House, Congress
In the second scenario, President Trump wins re-election, but Congress remains divided between a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. This status-quo outcome should fuel the gradual rollback of banking and oil and gas regulations. Trump in 2018 signed a bill that eased regulations on all but the largest banks, raising the threshold to $250 billion for banks considered too important to fail and absolving the smaller banks of certain stress tests.
Meanwhile, a "Red Redux," whereby the GOP takes back the House and keeps Trump in the White House, could propel the current pace of deregulation. U.S. oil and gas, financial firms and telecommunication companies would all see a boon while emerging markets could come under pressure if the U.S. dollar strengthens further.
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