Morning Bid: Markets hope China chooses to surprise on the upside

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Morning Bid: Markets hope China chooses to surprise on the upside
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A look at the day ahead in markets from Wayne Cole.

The skyline of La Defense business district is seen behind the Trocadero square during a warm and sunny day in Paris, France, June 25, 2020. REUTERS/Charles Platiau/File PhotoIt's been a careful start to the week in Asia with stocks and bonds little changed and the dollar holding most of Friday's bounce. The caution is understandable given the week holds updates on Chinese economic growth and global PMIs, along with the Fed's Beige book and at least eight Fed speakers.

The central bank did its part by bolstering liquidity in the financial sector by rolling over maturing medium-term policy loans with higher cash offerings for the fifth month. Citi's economic surprises index for China data is at its highest level in 17 years, and the market sees upside risk for Tuesday's releases on GDP, retail sales and industrial output.

Markets have shifted even further on the ECB to price in a 46% chance it will hike by a full 50 basis points on May 4. The first week of May is shaping up to be a doozy.

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